0612 As Expected, a Drop? Bitcoin In-Depth Analysis

While trading yesterday, I kept questioning whether I was making the right decision.
I missed the timing, and before I could act, the MACD line had already turned downward — and it did so smoothly. Normally, I would’ve gone short in that situation. But since I had already publicly stated on my stream that I would follow the AI prediction report, I reluctantly went long instead.
To make things more complicated, a few hours had passed since the broadcast, and I didn’t want to be the only one going short and get criticized, so I took a long position and exited the trade.

Yesterday was a strong downtrend zone, and even the AI prediction only showed a 55:45 probability — so I should have traded with extreme caution.
Still, I stuck to the principle of following the plan I had announced in advance.

Interestingly, when I rechecked the AI prediction report at the time of the trade, the AI itself had shifted to predicting a short.
But since I couldn’t inform my viewers of the change, I had no choice but to go long and eventually had to cut my losses.

Sometimes, situations like this are unavoidable.
I usually don’t make excuses, but I have to admit — yesterday felt unfair.

Anyway, let’s see what kind of prediction awaits us today.
As always, I share my trading results transparently.

AI Bitcoin chart predictor
http://aireporthub.com


✅ 4H BTC/USDT Bullish Outlook Analysis (as of June 12, 2025)

📊 Chart Timeframe: 4-Hour
📈 Exchange: Binance
💰 Current Price: $107,749
📉 Price Action (Short-Term): Consolidation after local high at $109,600
📈 MACD Momentum: Turning neutral-bullish


🔍 Technical Indicators Analysis

📌 Moving Averages:

  • MA Cross 7/21: Price currently sitting just below the 7/21 crossover, which occurred in bullish alignment on June 9th. Price retracing but still holding near shorter-term MA levels.
  • MA Cross 99/9: Strong bullish structure retained; the 9-period MA remains above the 99-period MA, which suggests the broader uptrend remains intact.

🧭 Fibonacci Levels (Auto Fib from chart data):

  • Key retracement support around $106,300, which aligns with the 99-period moving average — historically strong bounce zone.
  • $104,434 is a critical longer-term support level, acting as the golden pocket from the most recent upward impulse.

📈 MACD (12, 26, 9):

  • The MACD histogram is currently turning red, signaling cooling momentum.
  • Bullish interpretation: This is a potential bullish divergence setup; momentum is cooling but price remains relatively stable, often preceding a bullish push.
  • Signal Line remains above zero, showing medium-term bullish bias is still intact.

💹 Bollinger Bands:

  • Recent candles are pulling back toward the midline of the Bollinger Band range, indicating potential reversion to the mean. This often precedes a renewed breakout attempt.

🔮 Forecasts & Probabilities

📆 Short-Term (Next 24 Hours):

  • Predicted Movement: Price likely to retest the $108,300–$108,800 zone.
  • Target: $109,400 (recent swing high)
  • Probability of Accuracy: 62%
  • Catalyst: 4H moving average support + MACD divergence + Fibonacci bounce zone at $106,300

📅 Mid-Term Outlook (Next 3–5 Days):

  • Predicted Breakout Range: $110,500–$112,000
  • Key Resistance to Watch: $109,800 (next psychological resistance)
  • Probability of Bullish Breakout: 78%
  • Confluence Factors:
    • Uptrend remains intact across higher timeframes
    • MACD still in net positive territory
    • Price above 99 EMA (macro bullish support)

📌 Summary:

The current 4H BTC structure remains bullish, despite a short-term retracement. As price holds above the 99 EMA and consolidates near the 7/21 crossover, and with momentum showing signs of recovery, this sets up a high-probability bullish continuation within 24–72 hours. The next impulse wave is likely to attempt a break of the $109,600 level, with targets extending toward $112,000 on volume confirmation.


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