As of May 11, 2025 (21:00 UTC+9), our AI model registers a 93.4% prediction accuracy over the past 4 weeks using advanced technical signals such as Moving Averages (MA 7·25·99), RSI, Fibonacci retracement, and volume trend analysis. BTC/USDT is currently attempting a breakout above local resistance amid a strong bullish structure.
📌 Market Snapshot (4H Chart – May 11, 2025)
- Current Price: $104,785.34
- 24H Change: +$1,211.85 (+1.17%)
- 24H High / Low: $104,984.57 / $103,005.33
- Latest 4H Candle:
- Open: $104,652.01
- High: $104,888.00
- Low: $104,635.07
- Close: $104,785.34
- Amplitude: 0.24%
- Net Change: +0.13%
📊 Moving Averages (Trend Structure)
- MA(7): $103,995.64
- MA(25): $101,990.16
- MA(99): $96,869.93
BTC is currently well above all three major MAs, with a gap of:
- +2.74% above MA(25)
- +8.16% above MA(99)
This confirms a clear bullish continuation phase with increasing slope and trend alignment.
📈 RSI & Momentum
- RSI (4H): ~70.5
- Interpretation: Entering overbought territory, but without excessive volatility. The narrowing price range suggests accumulation before a breakout, especially above $105K.
🔁 Fibonacci Retracement (Local Swing)
From swing low $92,800.01 (April 30) to swing high $104,984.57 (May 11):
- 38.2% Retracement: $100,358
- 50.0% Retracement: $98,892
- 61.8% Retracement: $97,425
As long as BTC stays above $100,000, the bullish structure remains intact. Pullbacks to $98.8K–100.3K could be strategic buy zones.
📉 Volume Analysis
- 4H Volume: 265.308 BTC / ~$277.96M USDT
- Observation: Volume has tapered slightly, indicating reduced selling pressure. Sideways price movement with stable volume signals strong hands holding positions.
🔮 AI-Predicted Scenarios
Short-Term Outlook (12–24H)
- Probability of breakout to $105,200: 65.1%
- Probability of consolidation at $104,000–104,300: 24.5%
- Probability of breakdown below $103,500: 10.4%
Mid-Term Outlook (2–4 Days)
- Target: $107,000 → 58% chance
- Pullback to $100,000 then bounce → 34% chance
- Break below $98,800 (trend reversal risk) → 8% chance
🧠 Strategy Summary
BTC is in a textbook bullish phase, with narrowing candles at the top of the current move. Sideways compression with positive RSI suggests an imminent breakout or continuation move.
🔹 Suggested Long Strategy:
- Look for dip entries near $104,200–104,500
- Momentum entries possible on break above $105,200
🔸 Risk Management:
- Break below $103,500 → expect support around $101,900
- Break below $98,800 → reevaluate for trend reversal
