Just as predicted yesterday, the price movement followed expectations. The strong resistance at the 99-line held firm, making it quite a comfortable day overall.
By taking a short position during the drop and then switching to a long at the 99-line, I was able to complete two successful trades, kicking off July on a very positive note.
The first trading day of the month always brings some tension. That’s because the gains (or losses) on this day often have a significant impact on the results over the next 30 days.
If you take a loss early on, it can result in a final return that’s two to three times lower than if you’d started with a win. That’s why getting a good start is crucial.
Fortunately, the chart displayed a stable, calm pattern—one of the most reliable forms—allowing me to secure two rounds of profit. Couldn’t have asked for a better beginning.
Hoping this trend continues and July brings even greater profits.
Also, I noticed some comments asking: “If your monthly return exceeds 1000%, wouldn’t that translate to 100–200x annual return?” The answer is no.
In Bitcoin futures trading, you can’t use 100% of your capital for every trade. Since there’s always the risk of liquidation, if your total capital is 100, you have to assume you’ll be liquidated 2–3 times a month. That means you should only be investing around 30 out of your 100 units.
That’s why a 100–200x annual return isn’t realistic, even with high monthly gains.
Now, let’s take a look at today’s chart forecast.
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📈 BTC/USD 4H Chart Bullish Forecast
Price at time of analysis: $106,835.52
Exchange: Binance
Chart timeframe: 4H
Indicators analyzed:
- Moving Averages (MA 21, MA 99)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- Key Support/Resistance
- Recent price structure
🔍 Technical Outlook
1. Support & Resistance Levels
- Support Zone: $105,500 – $105,600 (MA 99 + recent price rejection zone)
- Resistance Zone: $107,200 – $107,800 (local high and MA 21 breakout area)
The price has just bounced from the yellow 99-period MA (≈ $105,626), showing strong bullish defense at a historically reactive level.
2. MACD Analysis
- MACD Line: -185.93
- Signal Line: -215.45
- Histogram: Increasing toward zero (-29.51)
✅ The MACD histogram is contracting in negative territory, suggesting momentum reversal to the upside is underway.
✅ This aligns with bullish divergence observed in prior troughs around June 24–26 and July 1, indicating diminishing selling pressure.
3. Moving Averages Cross & Price Structure
- Price is currently reclaiming the 21-period EMA (green line) after a successful retest of the 99 MA (yellow line).
- Historically, this crossover and support retest pattern led to multiple short-term rallies (4–6%) over the last month.
🔮 Price Prediction
⏰ Short-Term (Next 24 Hours)
- Target: $107,800
- Probability: 63%
- Based on MACD histogram slope, MA crossover, and price reclaiming short-term trend, a push toward previous resistance at $107.8K is likely.
📆 Mid-Term (3–5 Days)
- Target Range: $108,600 – $110,000
- Probability: 76%
- If the price successfully clears $107.8K resistance, we anticipate bullish continuation, possibly forming a new leg up toward the June highs.
📊 Summary of Bullish Signals
| Indicator | Signal Type | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| MACD Histogram | Bullish Reversal | Momentum turning upward |
| 21/99 MA Rebound | Bullish Retest | Trend support confirmed |
| Price Action | Higher Lows | Bullish structure continuation |
| Volatility | Decreasing | Pre-breakout compression phase |
✅ Recommended Action:
Bullish bias confirmed – Look for potential entries on minor dips or consolidation above $106.5K.
Monitor price reaction at $107.8K zone for breakout confirmation.
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