Bitcoin is once again showing strong momentum, flirting with the $111,000 resistance zone. As volatility increases, investors are paying close attention to technical indicators such as the Fibonacci retracement, MACD, and moving averages. In this in-depth analysis, we leverage AI-driven chart tools and real-time Binance 4-hour charts to predict the next potential moves for BTC. Whether you’re planning a short-term trade or a longer-term position, this breakdown will help you make informed decisions based on solid technical signals and historical backtesting.
📊 Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Technical Analysis – 4H Chart on Binance
📅 Analysis Date & Time: May 26, 2025 – 09:05 UTC
🕓 Timeframe: 4-Hour (4H) Candlestick Chart
🔍 Summary of Key Technical Indicators
✅ Fibonacci Retracement Levels
- Current BTC price: $109,783
- Testing resistance at 0.618 retracement level ($109,321)
- Major resistance zones ahead:
- 0.786 level: $110,806
- Local high: $111,917
- Bullish extension target: 1.618 level at $115,125
✅ Moving Averages (MA)
- MA 21 (short-term): $108,712 – Price is above this level → Bullish trend remains intact
- MA 99 (mid-term): $105,585 – Strong support base
- Golden cross active – Positive sign for continuation of upward momentum
✅ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
- MACD line is crossing above the signal line → Bullish crossover
- Histogram turning positive → Rising momentum returning
✅ Volume Profile
- Buying volume increased during the recent rally
- Post-pullback, volume has cooled, but breakout confirmation requires strong volume again
🔐 Key Support & Resistance Levels
| Type | Price (USDT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Support | 108,709 / 108,712 | Local support + 21MA |
| Strong Support | 105,585 | Mid-term base (MA99) |
| Resistance | 110,806 / 111,917 | Fibonacci & previous high |
| Target Zone | 115,125 | Fibonacci 1.618 extension |
📈 Price Forecast Scenarios
🔼 Bullish Scenario (Next 24 Hours)
- Conditions: Break above $110,000 with strong volume
- Target 1: $110,806 (Fibonacci 0.786)
- Target 2: $111,917 (Local high)
- Target 3: $115,125 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension)
📊 Probability of Uptrend: 64.8%
🔽 Bearish Scenario (Next 24 Hours)
- Conditions: Breakdown below $108,700 and MA21
- Target 1: $105,585 (MA99 support)
- Target 2: $105,000 (Psychological support)
📉 Probability of Downtrend: 35.2%
📅 Mid-Term Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)
- Mid-term trend remains bullish, supported by golden cross and higher lows
- As long as BTC holds above $105,000, $115K target remains viable
- Monitor external factors like ETF inflows/outflows and macro sentiment
📊 Mid-Term Uptrend Probability: 70.4%
📉 Mid-Term Downtrend Probability: 29.6%
📌 Overall Evaluation
Bitcoin is currently testing the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance and showing bullish continuation signals across key indicators like MACD, moving averages, and Fibonacci extensions. While a breakout above $110,800 could trigger a rapid move toward $115,000, failure to hold $108,700 would introduce short-term downside risk. This is a pivotal moment for BTC, and traders should closely monitor volume and volatility for confirmation.
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