Bitcoin has experienced a slight decline, currently hovering around $62,400. Despite being the second week of May, there’s still no significant movement, suggesting that it might not be the right time yet.
What’s different about Bitcoin now compared to before is that, previously, it did not align well with news or rumors. For instance, in the past, strong positive news would often lead to a significant drop, almost as if those holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin deliberately released positive news only to sell off their holdings.
This was particularly evident during the period when Bitcoin margin trading was mostly conducted on a site called BitMEX. Often, the movements were opposite to the positions of futures traders, almost as if someone intentionally manipulated the market to liquidate traders’ positions.
However, things have changed now. With more Bitcoin futures trading platforms, an active ETF market, and a wider distribution of Bitcoin holders, no single entity holds absolute sway over the supply. As a result, Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by news, moving up with positive news and down with negative developments.
Whether or not this can be described as “normal,” it’s certainly a departure from the past, where the opposite movement was more frequent. This counter-movement was predictable enough that some traders would deliberately take the opposite side of the prevailing news.
Such movements have significantly decreased, yet Bitcoin trading now lacks the same excitement and dynamism. While there are moderate movements, the dramatic fluctuations of the past are missed by some traders.
Currently, Bitcoin stands at $62,300. As expected, this decline may just be a false signal, with a possible upward movement ahead. Despite showing a downward trend, it’s often these moments that precede an upward swing.
When predicting price movements 24 hours ahead, I usually assess horizontal, upward, or downward trends, but the recent sideways movements have made things less exciting. I generally rely on the most recent data for my predictions, often looking no further than three hours into the future.
If I were to predict tomorrow’s price, I’d say an upward trend, despite the feeling of uncertainty. As noted in the past couple of days, Bitcoin appears to be moving downward, but such signals often lead to an upward movement. Predicting a rise seems appropriate.