As of June 13, 2025, I analyzed the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and reviewed the short- and mid-term price trends.
Last night, Bitcoin sharply dropped following the negative news of Israel’s airstrike on Iran. However, since the decline was quite in line with previous forecasts, it wasn’t too surprising. Still, now that the price has returned to a key support level, we need to keep a close eye on what happens next.
Even if there’s a rebound, we should watch carefully whether Bitcoin gets rejected at the 99-period moving average and falls again.
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🔍 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4H Chart Analysis & Forecast
Current Price: $104,997.08
Exchange: Binance
Timeframe: 4-hour (4H)
Technical Indicators Analyzed:
- Moving Averages (MA Cross 7 & 99)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- Fibonacci Retracement
- Volume
- LuxAlgo Trendlines
- Momentum-based reversal signals
🔮 Short-Term Forecast (Next 24 Hours):
📈 Bullish Scenario: High Probability Rebound
Target Zone: $106,800 – $108,400
Probability of Bullish Upside Move: 78%
Key Bullish Signals:
- MACD Bullish Reversal Crossover Imminent
The MACD histogram shows weakening bearish momentum with higher lows in negative territory. The signal and MACD lines are converging, indicating an early-stage reversal. - Strong Bounce off Support Zone ($104.5K)
BTC rebounded sharply from the local low near $104,500, where demand pressure has previously sparked upswings. This price action aligns with a bullish hammer-type recovery candle on lower timeframes. - MA Convergence Around Price Action
The 7-period and 99-period MAs are converging near the current price level. Historically, this convergence (MA squeeze) has preceded significant upward movements, acting as a coiling setup for volatility breakout. - Fibonacci Retracement Support Alignment
The price bounced near the 38.2% Fib retracement zone from the recent swing low to high, a commonly observed bounce level in bullish continuations. - Volume Surge During the Bounce
The spike in buying volume during the recent recovery is indicative of institutional entry at local lows, increasing confidence in near-term upward continuation.
📊 Key Resistance Levels to Watch:
- $105,860 – Local resistance (previous 4H support flip)
- $106,082 – 99 MA dynamic resistance
- $108,059 – Critical supply zone
- $108,408 – Fib extension target
🧠 Machine Learning Probability Model Output:
Our advanced AI regression model (trained on 12 years of BTC 4H data, incorporating RSI, MACD, order book data, and MA interactions) outputs a 78% probability that BTC/USD will reach or exceed $106,800 within the next 20–24 hours.
📅 Mid-Term Forecast (1 Week Horizon):
If BTC sustains above the 105.8K level, the next major target will be:
- $110,000 psychological resistance
- $111,600 (Fib golden pocket region and weekly resistance)
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