Bitcoin has experienced a slight decline, maintaining a level around $67,000. Recently, Bitcoin has been exhibiting characteristics more akin to a stable security with less volatility, making it increasingly difficult to achieve significant gains through Bitcoin alone.
Currently, the market expects Bitcoin to continue its upward trend due to three main factors: 1. A large number of Bitcoin addresses have become active, 2. Open interest is on the rise, and 3. There is an increasing number of short-term holders with profit margins.
Additionally, Bitcoin typically enters a full decline phase after surpassing its previous all-time high and then steadily dropping. In this case, Bitcoin has reached a level similar to its previous peak but has shown no significant movement, suggesting that it might be consolidating a support base before another surge.
While there are many reasons to believe in a potential rise, there are fewer arguments for a decline. The primary reasons for a potential decline include the fact that Bitcoin’s buying pressure has been surging for several months, reaching a greed phase, making it difficult to sustain further increases. Additionally, the monthly chart indicates a range where a downturn is possible at any time.
The reason I haven’t posted on my blog recently is that it’s been challenging to predict the direction of Bitcoin’s movement accurately. I typically place bets when there’s a 60:40 ratio favoring a rise or fall, but recently, it’s been a 50:50 scenario too often.
We are in a range where it wouldn’t be surprising whether the price goes up or down. The easiest way to trade is to bet on the rising trend during upward movements and on the declining trend during downward movements, but that’s not currently the case.
Apart from those who have made modest gains with altcoins, there aren’t many people making significant profits by holding Bitcoin. Many perceived the listing of ETFs as a positive factor, but ETF listings have had such a substantial impact on Bitcoin’s volatility that more investors are likely to turn their attention to other assets in the future.
As for predicting the price 24 hours from now, the answer is “I don’t know.” It wouldn’t be surprising to see the price move in either direction.