From today, I’ll start by discussing whether the prices I previously predicted were accurate.
Blog posts that simply state prices could go up or down aren’t very helpful. It’s better to indicate whether the direction is likely to be upwards or downwards.
Experts often mention both directions, and technically, they aren’t wrong to do so.
It’s all a game of probabilities. Nothing is 100% certain to go up or down—that would be the realm of the divine.
However, I believe it’s necessary to talk about the direction that is more likely based on probabilities.
Yesterday, I predicted a downturn while most expected a rise.
The reasons for foreseeing a decline could be simple, like a specific pattern on a chart, or a more comprehensive overview, or it could even be based on intuition.
Whatever the method, it only needs to have a high probability of being correct. The causal relationship between the data and the result just needs to be strong. However, claims like “my dog is in a good mood today, so Bitcoin will rise tomorrow” should be scrutinized.
Of course, if my dog’s good mood coincides with a day of good weather and low humidity—which could possibly influence traders’ behavior and Bitcoin’s performance—it might not be completely far-fetched. But realistically, we should focus on more credible factors. I concentrate solely on charts.
Situations and news in reality are often the spoils of those who have prior information, so I do not analyze current events or news.
I will focus only on chart analysis, seeking patterns solely through this means to produce results.
Yesterday, I predicted a downward trend, but today, it’s too difficult to make a prediction.
The $60,000 support line has held strong three times and is currently near $60,000. If it holds, we could see a significant rise; if it breaks, it will likely collapse.
At such a critical point, it’s advisable to take some profits if you’re in a profitable trade and take a break.
For the next 24 hours, the movement will be a battle between support and resistance lines, so I see it as a complete 50:50 chance.
This is my first time forecasting a 50:50 chance. I hope everyone sees favorable results.